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The scenarios compared

The scenarios compared

This section compares the overall features of the scenarios. It takes a very global perspective, rather than focusing on - for example - managerial tasks or sectoral interest.

  Renewed Foundations Pushing the Edge
Economic growth to 2010 Capital market under-performance, slow economic expansion. Major productivity drive, however, with significant social impact. Pervasive lack of trust. Very rapid growth, ceaseless accelerando of technological change. Strong productivity drive, but new activities also hire heavily. Out-sourcing overseas adds to exclusion of least able.
Economic growth after 2010 Gradual pick-up based on knowledge economy. Area-focused specialisation; but also 'fitting in' with very complex, differentiated needs. Growth slows as a result of the overwhelming complexity of the operating environments, and the instability caused by weak institutions and global shocks.
Political themes around 2010 Claimancy, identity politics, activism. Rift between traditionalist, age-heavy nations & others; and attempts to curtail the supposed impact of third world trade on local jobs. Triumphal revival of 'modernism' in the leading edge nations; some bitterness and blame elsewhere. Coldness between the industrial nations.
Pre-occupations after 2010 Building and learning to use multi-layered, expert, plural frameworks without becoming bogged down by them. Building international structures to bring order. Complexity managed by fragmentation and statal minimalism. Very high levels of differentiation develop, and managing interfaces is an issue.
  Renewed Foundations Pushing the Edge
Leading edge industrial countries in 2020 Denmark, Scandinavians, Netherlands, Canada; major cities; major industrial value chains and their related geographical centres. USA, Canada, UK, Eire, Australia; London, New York, other major cities; Singapore, parts of coastal China.
Trailing edge industrial countries Japan, UK excluding London, US urban sprawl, Italy, Belgium, France. Japan, Italy; rural hinterland of age-and-claimancy nations; rust belt USA.
Relations between industrial nations Sharply cooling as ideological differences develop; warming and extending to general collaboration as the renewed approach becomes proven. By 2020, 'national' relations are supplanted by far more complex, multi-layered relations. Initially warm at the elite level, gradually cooling as complexity curtails sovereign liberties. Mutual economic dependency has increased greatly by 2020.
Global relations A major effort underway in 2020 to 'raise the game' and to build working international institutions. Largely bilateral or unilateral interventions, set against a background of weak institutions.
Security concerns Environmental issues. Theft of intellectual property is important. A desire to project power to 'make things right'. The pre-occupations of a wealthy, elderly population projected on the rest of the world. Dangerous technologies, wars amongst middle-rank powers, public health problems, economic discontinuities, resource wars and environmental problems, terror as vehicle for dissent.
  Renewed Foundations Pushing the Edge
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